Just over a month ago, Horace Dediu of Asymco wrote In which a hypothesis about changing cycle updates iPhone and iPad. Recently, some Western analysts have fueled this theory of their beliefs is that now the new products will be produced twice a year. made visual graphics and little to speculate about why it really can happen.
Last year, Apple released a new iPhone 5 , iPad Mini and fourth generation iPad in September and October.It really is an important event because these devices now make up 69% of revenue. There is an option that these releases were planned for the end of the year on purpose, in order to free customers from headaches regarding gifts. Agree attractive prospect to receive a gift desired device, and even the latest models with advanced and we all know that "apple" products are not the first year is in the top position Wish lists around the world. Upgrade your smartphone and tablets would help Apple achieve astronomical as a result of Christmas sales, and this they would declare at the end of the first quarter, that is quite soon . But this strategic move, on the other hand, would reduce the company's revenue in Q3 and Q4 of 2013, as it was in between presentations of iPhone 4S and iPhone 5.
Because competitors are not asleep - all planed and planed their Pinocchio, sorry, let more and more plastic copies and "murderers" iPhones and aypadov, sorry,- Their activity does affect the speed of "obsolescence" of "apple" products and market conditions. Rumors and waiting for a new iPhone with its annual update cycle makes some wait and refrain from buying. In 2012, Apple was able to partially offset the decline in demand issue third-generation iPad. Joint release iPhone and iPad in September / October, contributed a resounding success at the beginning of 2013-th and the probability of a lull in the middle of the year.
Twice-cycle updates will support moderate demand
Releasing new models of iPhone and iPad every six months, Apple will be in favorable terms on many fronts.Some buy every version of the device, while others update their Soup much rarer. Twice-cycle release of new Apple products will help manage the supply without the need to prepare for the boom immediately after the start and decline in demand in the middle of the year. Every year kupertinovtsy improve its supply chain for new devices: for example, the huge demand for the iPhone 5 has created a deficit that could relatively quickly eliminated. The same situation with iPad mini - willing to purchase a device hardly had to wait such a possibility and product availability. Can we hope that in the future new products will always be there at all? Results of the last few years show a tendency that it will.
Releases a year lead to long waiting times and "downtime in calendar"
If you look at the calendar updates and press releases of the company for 2011, you will see a lot of "information downtime" - months when nothing happens. 2012-First was a bit more eventful, but the situation is not much different.
And although we do not know what trumps Apple stashed in the sleeve for this year. But it is safe to say that if they follow the general trends of recent years, it will be a long time (about 7 months), when the company is not available to the public any new products (even updates Macs in 2012, as a rule, occurred in the second half of the year). However, if you write on the calendar releases iPhone and iPad in the six-month cycle (around March and April), the situation looks more promising and realistic.
Just as in the 2012th, we can predict the 5 key events for Apple: two releases iPhone, iPad and two releases WWDC. Both events are timed update portable devices can become a place to showcase new Mac computers and iPods, as it was last year.
Are also possible such scenarios: Developers need time to focus on new product (Apple TV?), So the first half of the year will be "empty." You can wait for the system and hardware updates for your computer in the first half of the year and the release of portable devices in the second. Maybe everything will be even worse in terms of product launches and information events, and their number will be reduced at all.
Apple should quickly take up the international market
Changing the cycle of regular release of new iPhone and iPad must be accompanied by the start of sales of the world at an accelerated pace. Latest version of the Apple (iPhone 5, iPhone 4S, iPad 3) were able to get in about 100 countries in 100 days. Without a doubt, this is a very large percentage of the market, but it is not the limit. In case of change of the annual update schedule the company will make a shift to start selling the new devices in other countries almost simultaneously with the U.S., or at least with minimal margin.
Recent rumors, news and opinions
Do not believe rumors, but to listen and take note - you can.
- Just recently, John Legere, Director General of T-Mobile, That they will start selling iPhone «for three to four months, as opposed to six to nine months of waiting before."
- Analyst Brian White of Topeka Capital Markets That the next iPhone will be launched in May / June.
- Widespread rumors that the fifth-generation iPad expected in March 2013 th.
- DigiTimes The release of new products "in the middle of 2013."
Closing Comments
Author on MacStories raises the question of the necessary innovation to move to a biennial cycle of product updates.
Horace Dediu of Asymco That these changes are global. Since Apple - integrated company, and does not consist of the production department, there is the marketing, design, hardware and software, whose work also needs to be changed.
Bryan Wolfe of For example, in advance upset: the idea that his iPad with Retina-Display for $ 600 "will cease to be the last" two times faster than expected, causing him "some discomfort."
The author of this article is genuinely baffled that all work continue to believe that Apple - it's show-offdevices need to be updated as new versions, even if its predecessor you more than satisfied. There is a need for new functions and financial opportunity - you buy and do not complain, do not have such needs and desires - polzueshsya that is, and you rejoice. People with the latest device that is not even able to use his power at least half are pathetic.
Apple twice a day for a series of product updates may become a new landmark in the development, if they can cope with all the problems that will follow the change. Will you and innovation, the lack of which some shouting at each corner, and the competitiveness of devices and increase the income of the company, as a result, and the normalization of the situation on the market. But is it by himself there in Cupertino, and most importantly, in the teeth if they do - that is another question.
